CBN News Senior National Correspondent David Brody suggests that Barack Obama could get up to 40 percent of the evangelical vote this November, based on a comment from Evangelical Public Relations Executive Mark DeMoss:
If one third of white evangelicals voted for Bill Clinton the second time, at the height of Monica Lewinsky messâ€â€that’s a statistic I didn’t believe at first but I double and triple checked itâ€â€I would not be surprised if that many or more voted for Barack Obama in this election. You’re seeing some movement among evangelicals as the term [evangelical] has become more pejorative. There’s a reaction among some evangelicals to swing out to the left in an effort to prove that evangelicals are really not that right wing. There’s some concern that maybe Republicans haven’t done that well. And there’s this fascination with Barack Obama. So I will not be surprised if he gets one third of the evangelical vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 40-percent.
Unfortunately for Moss, double and triple checking his facts did not prevent him from realizing that the Lewinsky scandal did not surface publicly until 1998 – which, by my calculation, comes after Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996.
Moreover, it’s not unusual for Democrats to pick up a third of the evangelical vote in a good year. It happened in 2006, when the GOP was beset by ethics scandals, including the case of Rep. Mark Foley.
The general political environment favors Democrats at the moment, so a similar performance might be possible in this cycle. But Obama generally tended to fare worse with the religiously observant as the primary campaign wore on. One of the few exceptions to this pattern was Oregon, but there were much fewer religiously observant voters in that state than in Kentucky, where the pattern held.
Brody has been banging the drum for Obama throughout the campaign. Caveat emptor.
(h/t HotAir headlines.)
Comment by Roboc on 6/6 @ 1:51 pm #
By the end of the summer he should have 100% of the vote. Canonization cannot be far away.
Pingback by Hot Air » Blog Archive » Obama: I shall be your president for two terms, oh yes on 6/6 @ 2:01 pm #
[...] course, if David Brody’s right about him possibly pulling 40% of evangelicals, it might very well [...]
Pingback by a-foton » More faith-based election coverage [Karl] on 6/6 @ 2:13 pm #
[...] Ed Brill wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptCBN News Senior National Correspondent David Brody suggests that Barack Obama could get up to 40 percent of the evangelical vote this November, based on a comment from Evangelical Public Relations Executive Mark DeMoss: If one third of white evangelicals voted for Bill Clinton the second time, at the height of Monica Lewinsky messâ€â€that’s a statistic I didn’t believe at first but I double and triple checked itâ€â€I would not … [visit site to read more] [...]
Comment by Hope Muntz on 6/6 @ 2:23 pm #
Canonization has already begun: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2008/06/06/notes060608.DTL
Comment by twolaneflash on 6/6 @ 2:36 pm #
The heat and passion of the long hot summer gives way to the coolness and sleepiness of fall. Obama’s Boys and Girls of Summer will be facing college finals in November, football season will be well underway, the World Series will have overshadowed politics for many in October, and the winter freeze won’t be far away. Climate change will have occurred by election time, and many young hearts will have fallen in and out of love.
Obama should remember his surfing lessons, but he’s bogus. He’s on a crest, but that wave can still wipe him out. Obama has snaked and stuffed so many of his fellow wayfaring surfers, not to mention the citizens who voted him into office and into the Democratic Presidential candidacy, that he is due to get bent. Let him eat sand.
Comment by syn on 6/6 @ 2:41 pm #
Highly doubt Obama will get votes from those who fought for the partial-birth ban which Obama opposed.
Comment by OregonGuy on 6/6 @ 2:42 pm #
Godless Oregon.
It’s a fair cop.
.
Comment by JB on 6/6 @ 3:23 pm #
So the evangelicals won’t take Bambi’s pastor seriously? Or his other pastor? Or the other one?
They won’t be put off in the slightest bit from the crap that spews from the pulpit of Bambi’s church on a weekly basis?
Check.
Comment by JimK on 6/6 @ 4:08 pm #
O’s comment about sin, to the affect that it is being out of alignment with his values, ought to move a lot of them Christianists, too.
Comment by Jeffersonian on 6/6 @ 4:29 pm #
I think Mr. Brody has Excitable Andy issues. NTTAWWT
Comment by Big Bang Hunter (pumping you up) on 6/6 @ 4:42 pm #
- “Obama bottoms – briefs we can believe in. ~O~!”
Comment by Christopher Taylor on 6/6 @ 5:23 pm #
The northwest has the lowest church attendance and the fewest people claiming to be Christian of any area in the US; of course the usual metrics involving the religious fail here. However, let me assure you, Christians are not deciding that gay marriage-pushing, abortion-mongering, soft-on-crime Democrats are suddenly the party for them.
Comment by ahem on 6/6 @ 6:20 pm #
Uh-no.
Pingback by Media Mythbusters Blog » Blog Archive » Media Bias Roundup - 06/06/08 on 6/6 @ 6:26 pm #
[...] Protein Wisdom – More faith-based election coverage [Karl] [...]
Comment by Sean M. on 6/6 @ 7:01 pm #
B-but He’s Teh Messiah! How could they not vote for Him?
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