At RCP, Jay Cost does his typically excellent job in analyzing Sen. John McCain’s win in the Florida primary, which was based on the same general coalition he has had in New Hampshire and South Carolina. ÂÂ
Curiously, Cost misses the larger implication of that analysis.
Cost notes that McCain once again won those who are disenchanted by the Bush presidency, despite campaigning in no small part on the “surge,” which Cost calls “the hallmark of the Bush presidency for the last year.” Cost attributes this — probably correctly — to McCain’s reputation as an anti-Bush Maverick. ÂÂ
McCain won voters for whom the economy is their top concern, 40% to 32%, which Cost finds “strange” (and that is before considering that McCain has admitted privately and publicly that he does not understand economics as well as he should, while claiming the opposite in debate).  Cost concludes — probably correctly — that this means McCain won voters who think the economy is sick.
The McCain vote had the same ideological mix as in New Hampshire and South Carolina, winning liberals and moderates by a large margin, splitting voters who consider themselves “somewhat” conservative, and losing ”very” conservative voters by a wide margin.
Cost thus opines:
My sense, based upon these observations, is that there is some connection between evaluations of Bush, evaluations of the economy, and ideological orientation. I think they are causally related to one another. One causes another - though who can say which orientations are primary and which are secondary (or if there is something else entirely that is driving all three)? *** Unfortunately, I can do little more than theorize about this potential psychological, though I think it is inherently reasonable. If I had more comprehensive exit poll data, it would be pretty easy to test whether these opinions are indeed related.
As noted above, I think Cost is right about most all of the above, but has missed the most likely inference to be drawn from this analysis.
Like the Democratic race, the GOP’s campaign for the presidential nomination is becoming all about… change.
While conservative poobahs have been disenchanted at times with the Bush Administration, that disenchantment has stemmed primarily from issues like illegal immigration and McCain-Feingold — where Bush has been in agreement with, or acquiescent to, the position of McCain.
Outside this group, the polls show a coalition of liberal, moderate and somewhat conservative Republicans who are disenchanted with the status quo, but have not gone so far as to vote for Sen. Barack Obama and his halo of changeyness in the Democratic caucuses and primaries to date. They want change, but not of the degree (and perhaps not of the kind) the Democrats would pursue. They may be simpático with McCain on the issues, or buy the Maverick brand, or be among the 40-50% of voters for whom issues are not paramount, and think McCain is generally most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief. Cost makes the related points that McCain was seen by Floridians as the most electable, edging Romney out by 13 points — and that there is a strong connection between perceptions of electability and vote choice.
This month’s Pew poll tends to support this interpretation at the national level:
Overall, more than a third of voters (35%) rate the ability to bring about needed change as the most important candidate quality, followed by saying what the candidate believes (24%), having the best experience (19%), and caring about average people (15%).
The poll also shows a bipartisan agreement of the sort of change they would like to see. The top two responsess are more bipartisan cooperation (39%) and reducing the influence of money and special interests (20%). Changes in domestic or foreign policy rank below those two responses by a decent margin (17% and 14%, respectively).
Looking at Republican voters, the poll finds that:
Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, change is not valued as highly as a candidate quality. For about a third (32%), a candidate saying what they believe is most important, while 27% see the ability to bring needed change as most important.
These results tend to explain the sizable bloc of Republican voters jonesing for a straight-talking Maverick and seeing McCain as electable, given a general zeitgeist for change that is not primarily directed at specific policies. These voters may be pursuing a mirage, but politics is often based on perception.
Comment by datadave on 1/30 @ 8:22 am #
nice article, Karl. Now, I’ve conceeded that both Obama and Hillary are going to have a hard time of it against either Romney or McCain. But Romney can be beat by any Democrat if that Democrat emphasizes that Romney part of the problem, not the solution. And his Mormon religion could keep a sizable portion of Southern anti Mormons home who’d might be pivotal in an election. Note the considerable problems Republican voters have with just Obama’s name and his alleged Muslim background.
McCain would or could win over independents as he at least admits there is an environmental problem (Global Warming, etc…forget arguing that one as an evershrinking antiEnvironmental movement has been proven wrong time and time again just by facts on the ground…like rising sea levels..)
As a friend said, “McCain could bring Republicans back into the realm of respectability again.”
Romney’s same old, same old repetitions of reducing environmental regulatoins to grow Detroit again, giving more billionaires tax breaks, and letting Big Business cut benefits and keep all profits as in his case of Big Box store management would only highlight the ever growing seperation of the top one percent from the other 99 percent. Romney represent those who’ve been the only recipients of major income growth in the last decades (adjusted for inflation). Even his old friend, Rocky Anderson, says Romney’s lost touch with economic reality by pandering to the Reaganite reactionary trustfunders. Hillary or Obama could mock Romney’s gold spoon upbringing to the nth degree.
McCain, I am afraid would be hard to beat.
Comment by Dan Collins on 1/30 @ 8:24 am #
Often?
Then there’s the fact that the demo most likely to engage in primary voting is . . . retirees.
Comment by Darleen on 1/30 @ 8:47 am #
and retirees are comfortable with McCain - he’s of their generation, a veteran and is still strong military.
but if anyone thinks his vet status is going to play at all in the general direction, they’ve forgotten Clinton v Dole - and if Barry gets the nod, that’s what we’ll be seeing. The perception of young, vigorous Kennedyesque (no matter how much Barry is not JFK in reality) v old, grey, cranky and overthehill. McCain believes his “maverick” status has bought him MSM loyalty. But watch as suddenly the Keating scandal will suddenly make ‘investigative’ pieces.
IMHO I think the 13% that broke for Huck would have been Romney’s. Huck is the GOP’s Ralph Nadar.
Comment by JD on 1/30 @ 8:54 am #
Note the considerable problems Republican voters have with just Obama’s name
Wrong again, dave. There is no evidence anyone has problems with Barry’s name, other than Ted Kennedy. You are simply pointing out a position held by the teeming hordes in your head.
The meandering loonwaffliness of the rest was sadly predictable.
Comment by Mikey NTH on 1/30 @ 9:03 am #
If it is a course change, then it is just a few points from that of the current administration, and not a different compass heading. It just looks different; enough that it is acceptable.
Comment by Enoch_Root on 1/30 @ 9:16 am #
Interesting. Listening to WisPubRadio (yes, I occassionally do this to myself in the morning), the guest (a prof, go figure) mantioned that The Huckster was probably staying in the race to be a “king maker”. She indicated that where Huck throws his weight, Conservatives follow. Really? Strange, as I don’t like Mike for the specific reason that he does not appear to be a conservativew at all! Additional scrutiny in terms of McCain appears to reveal very much the same: he is a hit-or-miss conservative. When it serves him, he is a conservative… when not, he is not (should sound very much like a couple on the Dem side whose names are not Obama). Now, typically I have always subscribed to the belief that there are fundamentally two types of people: rosey-colored emoticons (the liberal dems) and the more pragmatic steely-reasoned uptights (the conservative repubs). That is, like or lump em, the Liberal is more in love with broad-stroke themes than actual policy matters that will make a difference (re: we need more gun laws, even though our current gun laws are not enforced). But now, it seems the tables have shifted on me: many conservatives are now in love with the theme… to the degree that they can’t get past McCain’s betrayal of that theme. Now that we have seen Bush piss all over our conservative ideals, we cherish them more than ever. So, maybe McCain is a lesser of two evils, should he get the nod-mination. And certainly this is the case should Billary get the dems’ nomination. But, really it’s enough to turn me into a real idealogue, in that I won’t be very motivated about helping McCain. And as for the Indys voting for McCain in the general erection: if it’s Clinton he’s up against, I’ll believe it when I see it. If it’s Obama, there is real trouble… in that Indys don’t, by definition, cling to themes. They cling to personalities. Now I am not sure specifically what my point is… other than this: Romney is fucked. Unelectable against Obama or Billary. McCain vs Clinton - I just don’t see the base (me) getting too excited. McCain vs Obama - the Indys abandon McCain for Obama and the base (me) still doesn’t get real excited. Unless, of course, this whole thing becomes a stop Billary movement from the right. But, in that scenario, we simply stir the pot to a degree that we are cast as evil, woman-haters. And then… well, shit, then we get Pelvis and the Soccer Moms. Yuck.
Comment by Education Guy on 1/30 @ 9:19 am #
According to my conservative Democrat wife, McCain is too stodgy to be elected. She thinks it will be a trouncing in the general, and I can see her point. As Darleen pointed out, it will be Bob Dole all over again.
Comment by Semanticleo on 1/30 @ 9:35 am #
I am looking forward to the back-peddling by those who PREVIOUSLY despised McCain but would vote for a bloodhound over a Dem.
Comment by Great Mencken's Ghost on 1/30 @ 9:39 am #
So, if you’re concerned about the economy, vote for the man who says he doesn’t understand economics, as opposed to the man who turned a two-billion-dollar state deficit into a two-billion-dollar state surplus.
Comment by docob on 1/30 @ 9:43 am #
“Listening to WisPubRadio (yes, I occassionally do this to myself in the morning),”
I know, me too. Rough sledding, aint it? And to think I was once a hardcore, dollar-a-day club NPR guy ….
Agreed that McCain is the best remaining option. If he selects Rudy as VP all the better, and I think he has a real chance in November. (If he picks Chuckabee, I’ll vote write-in for pres and straight repub for the rest.)
As to McCain being Dole all over again, I disagree. I was around for that campaign (admittedly as a democrat) and McCain is NOT Dole. He’s an older white male war veteran, but he has a ton more crossover appeal. Plus, Hill aint Bill, and Obama may lose some of the present glow over the coming months. I would counsel strongly against despair, especially this early in the game.
Comment by Enoch_Root on 1/30 @ 9:52 am #
docob - ok, fine… i wont hang meself yet. And I wont invite Jack Ketch to dinner anytime soon ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Ketch ). However, you failed to point out that McCain still has use of both of his arms… so, I guess they arent one in the same.
Comment by datadave on 1/30 @ 9:53 am #
JD..read what these yahoos say about Obama:
“The Democrats have left the working people,†Mr. Moss said.
“We have nobody representing us,†he continued, adding that he was “sad to say†he had voted previously for Mr. Bush. He was considering sitting out this election altogether. “Anyone but Obama-Osama,†he said, chuckling at a designation that met with mirthful approval at the table. ”
from: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/us/politics/30south.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
Comment by Enoch_Root on 1/30 @ 9:53 am #
Speaking of missing toes: where the hell is happyfeet?
Comment by Education Guy on 1/30 @ 9:53 am #
I am looking forward to the back-peddling by those who PREVIOUSLY despised McCain but would vote for a bloodhound over a Dem.
It will at least be as interesting as watching the same from our friends on the left who have planted their flag in the Clinton haters camp.
Comment by datadave on 1/30 @ 10:00 am #
EG, I try to be nice to Republicans and you come along.
my mate says the same thing about McCain.
‘course she hates Romney with a passion as being so blow-dried. I can see why our local US Senator’s chief of staff is so excited about Obama: it’s the charisma. But are we ‘evolved’ enough to have even a half African/American President. I wish we were but the Tennessee guys in the article I linked above don’t see that way. And they voted for the victor in the last 8 or 9 elections. Hopefully, they’ll lose one sometime soon.
Comment by Jay Bee on 1/30 @ 10:01 am #
I do not understand the mentality of those who voted for McCain. This is the guy who would have sold this country down the river on (McCain-Kennedy)Immigration bill. This is the guy WHO WILL sell this country down the river if he is the republican candidate in November. Illegal immigrants are the biggest threat to this country in numerous ways. Illegal immigration ranks equally with the Iraq war and the economy in importance. If I had to pick one of these issues,it would be our illegal immigration fiasco.
Comment by jdm on 1/30 @ 10:01 am #
I am looking forward to the back-peddling by those who PREVIOUSLY despised McCain but would vote for a bloodhound over a Dem.
Sweetypie, black on white, for all eternity: I would vote for Hillary! or Obama before I would vote for McCain.
If we’re going to have a Democrat in the White House, make it a real one.
Comment by BJTexs on 1/30 @ 10:01 am #
Heh! Pretty much sums up my attitude about this election cycle, ER.
Comment by Dan Collins on 1/30 @ 10:03 am #
Bob Dole had a stiffy for Britney Spears, I think. Was that a Coke commercial, or Viagra again?
Comment by BJTexs on 1/30 @ 10:06 am #
Dan Collins wins today’s EEEEEWWWWWWW award.
Comment by JD on 1/30 @ 10:06 am #
KKKleo - There are plenty of reason to dislike McCain, but even more reasons to dislike anyone that you would support.
Comment by Rick Ballard on 1/30 @ 10:07 am #
Bob Dole is also intelligent, witty, honest and has the ability to at least project the illusion of humility. It’s difficult to make a case that Dole’s lodestar is his ego.
Not the same thing at all. There is another recent Presidential candidate with whom McCain shares more attributes than he does with Dole but I would hesitate to be particularly blunt in making the comparison.
Comment by JD on 1/30 @ 10:11 am #
datadave - And WHO gave Barry that designation? Drumroll …. Ted fucking Kennedy, you asshat. So, if calling him Obama Osama makes someone a yahoo, then we are in agreement, Ted Kennedy is a yahoo.
But, that is all beside the point. You have shown no evidence that people will not vote for him because of his name. There are plenty of reasons to not vote for Barry, with his name being so insignificant so as to only be visible to people like you. Tinfoil helps reception.
Comment by happyfeet on 1/30 @ 10:13 am #
Hi Enoch. Work has gotten really distracting is all. I should get ahead of that hopefully soon. Also, McCain. I already have a big pile of a lot to walk back later. Unless he chooses Huck as his running mate. Then I’ll be that unapologetic guy pretty much.
Comment by BJTexs on 1/30 @ 10:14 am #
dataless dave posts enough strawmen to stuff the mattresses of an average sized Holiday Inn. Without staying there, of course.
Why, dataless, do you hate dried grass?
Comment by Education Guy on 1/30 @ 10:15 am #
EG, I try to be nice to Republicans and you come along.
I’m not sure what you are trying to say.
Also, I don’t say that McCain is Dole, it’s just that the same vibrancy/oldness comparisons will be made for McCain as they were for Dole. I liked Bob Dole, even while I voted for Clinton.
Comment by docob on 1/30 @ 10:32 am #
“Also, I don’t say that McCain is Dole, it’s just that the same vibrancy/oldness comparisons will be made for McCain as they were for Dole.”
I agree that will be the biggest problem for McCain should it end up him v. Obama, which is one of the two reasons I’m pulling for Hillary to get the nomination (the other is that I don’t think she’ll be quite as big a disaster in regards to the war on Islamic Fundamentalism).
“I liked Bob Dole, even while I voted for Clinton.”
Same here, but those were different days. I think McCain has more appeal to Ind. and even some Dem. voters, which coupled with a solid security appeal could put him over the top.
VP choice is going to be huge, though, particularly give age/health considerations.
Comment by Great Banana on 1/30 @ 10:35 am #
(Global Warming, etc…forget arguing that one as an evershrinking antiEnvironmental movement has been proven wrong time and time again just by facts on the ground…like rising sea levels..)
Cites to reputable sources to support this completely fabricated claim? The last I checked, at least as far as actual science goes, it has been the enviro crazies who repeatedly are shown to have been wrong, about their past projections, current projections, etc. the problem with the left is their belief that stating something is true is the same thing as it actually being true.
Comment by docob on 1/30 @ 10:38 am #
p.s. - Thanks for the history lesson re: Jack Ketch, Enoch.
Comment by datadave on 1/30 @ 11:05 am #
what a hoot, you voted for Clinton? Guess I was wrong, I thought you were Republican? McCain has more up his sleeve than Dole I am sure. A bit of a “trousersnake” too. But a nice one….his first wife still respects him.
JD, compared to Ted K., McCain has raging hormones and pimples.
to whomelse: “enviro crazies” oh, yeah, that’s an argument? Oh, McCain is like listening to u?
Comment by alppuccino on 1/30 @ 11:07 am #
JD,
Speaking of old crotchety geezers, I drove through northern JD-ana yesterday and lo and behold, there was the RV/MH Hall of Fame. I didn’t have time to stop, but if I had, I would have surely visited the shrine to that RV that came back to the house and honked its horn until Grandpa realized that Timmy was trapped in the well. Oh, and I would have wanted to see the display of the Motor Home that held a world-record 8 cases of Hudepohl in it’s fridge.
Maybe on the way back.
Comment by The Lost Dog on 1/30 @ 11:11 am #
It’s gonna be awfully hard to “pull the lever” for the first senator in our history who either can’t read, can’t understand, or just plain ignored the first amendment.
I can forgive a lot in politics, but McCain-Feingold just plain scares the crap out of me. That’s not something that I can easily overlook, regardless of motive.
Comment by Enoch_Root on 1/30 @ 11:27 am #
docob - my pleasure. actually, that is a gift from Neal (the greatest living author of our time) Stephenson. Jack Ketch makes a couple cameos in his “System of the World” trilogy (the greatest trilogy written since Lord of the Rings). And, anyway, it’s on my mind, as Jack Ketch has been particularly active here at work in the past couple weeks… where no fewer than 40 people are trying to re-attach their severed heads. Me: well, I tried to run from him… but, alas, he found his mark.
Happy - glad to hear you are still among us, despite work.
And these shilltrolls that we spit on
As they try to heist the words
Are immune to the consultations
We’re quite aware of what They’re speaking through
Comment by docob on 1/30 @ 11:37 am #
“actually, that is a gift from Neal (the greatest living author of our time) Stephenson”
Given your screename, figured you might be a fan! =)
Comment by docob on 1/30 @ 11:41 am #
“And, anyway, it’s on my mind, as Jack Ketch has been particularly active here at work in the past couple weeks… where no fewer than 40 people are trying to re-attach their severed heads. Me: well, I tried to run from him… but, alas, he found his mark.”
Damn! Sorry to hear that!!
I hope you land on your feet, and if the quality of your commentary is any indication of your abilities, I’m sure you will.
Comment by Enoch_Root on 1/30 @ 11:43 am #
you are far too kind, docob. Thank you for the words of encouragement.
Comment by McGehee on 1/30 @ 11:57 am #
Hold your breath.
Comment by datadave on 1/30 @ 12:03 pm #
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zodiac_%28novel%29
cool, sounds like a good read for Protein heads who think “enviro crazies” are the Terror! Neal must’ve responded to the Unibomber sensation where the FBI and Republicans spent hundreds of millions of taxdollars rounding up and checking on all the enviromentalists in the West while ignoring the Saudi-fed terrorists that eventually got us on 9/11.
sounds like Micheal Creten stole his idea and reversed it against enviros in State of Fear whatever….
Comment by Enoch_Root on 1/30 @ 12:23 pm #
datadave - please read it first. it is hilarious-ly accurate. our hero(?) is a very funny character who seems a cross between magoo and al gore… i think youll enjoy it.
Comment by JD on 1/30 @ 12:45 pm #
alpuccino - Up in Amish country? I know, you were looking for a new girlfriend. I seem to recall you talking about being drawn to women in bonnets.
Enoch - datadave has no need to actually read it, he already knows it.
Data is his name,
Anecdotes and loonwaffliness is his game.
Comment by datadave on 1/30 @ 12:53 pm #
I’ll check it out.
oh, the evil nytimes has Neal’s writing too: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/18/opinion/18stephenson.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5090&en=8868294e84b071d9&ex=1331870400&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss
wow, funny good writing not that I’ll go get 300 anytime soon. from the trailers I agreed with Neal on that one and he got one thing wrong: Spartans were darker skinned than Persians as explained to me by a blue-eyed Iranian.
jd, loon waffles sound pretty good, w/ canadian bacon or preferably pancetta.
Comment by Enoch_Root on 1/30 @ 12:54 pm #
JD - you’re right… likely has a direct link to the hivemind feed. I believe they have an API for that sort of thing at moveon.borg
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