This latest comes from Karl Frisch (no relation, I don’t think), and wants me to know I’m being hoodwinked. Bamboozled. I didn’t land on Plymouth Rock, Plymouth Rock landed on me. Etc.
Says the email,
I'm sure you've seen the spin surrounding the Harvard Institute of Politics poll that Republicans are passing around showing them supposedly winning the youth vote.
It just isn't true. Bellow you'll find a thoughtful response that looks a bit deeper at what is going on and smashes some myths in the process. Let me know if you have any questions.
Happy to connect you with Alexandra or folks on the ground leading youth vote efforts.
What follows, then, is that “thoughtful response” from some budding young spin doctor, Alexandra Acker-Lyons (I know, isn’t the hyphen almost parodic at this point?), of the Youth Engagement Action Fund. Or, if you prefer, The YOU SHUT UP Branch of the politically superficial teen mod squad.
Remember when the media said young voters, dissatisfied with President Obama, would turn out in fewer numbers in 2012 than they had in 2008 and the opposite happened? Well, this week has been a bit like “deja vu all over again.”
If you’ve read the headlines, you probably think Millennials are abandoning Democrats in droves – that young voters are slated to fall in line behind Republicans in some sort of a unified middle-finger salute to President Obama and his progressive allies in Washington. And how do we know? Because a breathlessly reported Harvard Institute of Politics Poll of Millennials apparently tells us it’s so.
This would warrant the insane coverage it’s received – that an entire generation of voters had done a political about face after only two years – if it were true. After all, the media loves stories that seem to turn conventional wisdom on its head.
But, as is too often the case, this media narrative is far from accurate.
Millennial voters are not leaving Democrats in favor of Republicans. Here is what the Harvard poll actually says:
Millennial voters favor a Democratic congress 50%-43% and self-identify as Democrats by +11.
Only Millennials who said they were "definitely voting" in 2014 favored electing Republicans over Democrats, 51%-47%.
The poll’s findings do not support the media narrative that Millennials have become Republicans – they haven’t. Only likely youth voters favor Republicans. This is not without reason as likely youth voters are more likely to be white and conservative, which – as you might expect – does not reflect the youth voter overall.
Additionally, the polls sample seems to be statistically inconsistent with Millennials overall; 58% reported making more than $50,000 annually and 56% say their living quarters are “owned or being bought by you or someone in your household.”
So yes, Republicans do better with young voters when fewer young voters turn out. Thus far in 2014, it doesn’t look like that will be the case. According to an analysis of Millennial early voting by Project New America, some 200,000 more young voters have turned out in 2014 than at the same point in 2010.
2010 Election - 18-29 as of 11/2/2010
Registered as of 11/2/2010: 23,428,368
Ballot Cast by Wednesday Prior to Election: 406,785
2014 - Election - 18-29 as of 11/4/2014
Registered as off 10/30/2014: 32,185,568
Ballot Cast by Wednesday prior to election: 605,763
In fact, Millennials currently lean heavily Democratic. Millennials backed Barack Obama decisively in 2012 and they tend to opt for the Democrats over Republicans in congressional elections and in terms of partisan self-ID.
Overall, 56% of Millennials supported Obama in 2012 (including preferences among both voters and non-voters), compared to 29% for Romney.
Two-fifths of Millennials prefer a Democratic candidate for Congress compared to one-quarter who prefer a Republican.
In terms of party ID, 44% of Millennials identify with Democrats, 26% are Republicans, and 19% say that they do not identify with any political party.
Only 5% of Millennials call themselves Libertarians – a small bloc that split evenly in their presidential preferences in 2012 between Obama and Romney.
Analysis of the Millennials who voted for Obama in 2012 reveals their potential to tip the scales for Democrats in 2014 (IF THEY VOTE) as well as challenges to realize this potential.
74% of Obama voters prefer Democrats for Congress while 14% are undecided and only 12% prefer Republicans.
Above from Youth Engagement Fund’s poll with Project New America and Harstad Strategic Research. Additional issue-specific data available.
Additional National Polling
From a memo by Rob Flaherty and A’Shanti Gholar
Pew Research Center
“In short, not only are Millennials less likely than older generations to identify as Republicans, but even those who do express significantly less conservative values than do their elders.”
Fusion’s Massive Millennial Poll
“In the midterm elections, 47% of likely millennial voters say they’ll choose Democrats, 32% say they will vote for Republicans, and 21% are undecided”
“Only 15% of young black voters and 17% of young Hispanics are likely to support Republicans in the midterms”
Reason’s Millennial Poll
“71 percent favor raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour”
“69 percent say it is the government’s responsibility to guarantee everyone access to health care”
“68 percent say government should ensure everyone makes a living wage”
“66 percent say raising taxes on the wealthy would help the economy”
“63 percent say spending more on job training would help the economy”
“58 percent say the government should spend more on assistance to the poor even it means higher taxes”
“57 percent favor spending more money on infrastructure”
“54 percent want government to guarantee everyone a college education”
ABC News/Washington Post (Among ages 18-39)
43% trust Democrats to do a better job handling the main problems our country faces, compared to 33%who think that of the GOP
COLORADO: Mark Udall Led Cory Gardner 59% – 22% Among Voters Age 18 – 29, According To A Public Policy Polling Poll. [Public Policy Polling, 10/21/14]
GEORGIA: Michelle Nunn Led David Perdue 50% – 27% Among Voters Age 18 – 29, According To A CBS/NYT/YouGov Poll. [CBS/NYT/YouGov, 10/23/14]
IOWA: Bruce Braley Led Joni Ernst 49% – 37% Among Voters Age 18 – 29, According To A CBS/NYT Poll . [CBS/NYT poll,10/23/14]
KENTUCKY: Alison Lundergan Grimes Led Mitch McConnell 46% – 38% Among Voters Age 18 – 34, According To A Western Kentucky University Poll. [WKU Social Research Center, 10/20/14]
LOUISIANA: Mary Landrieu Led Bill Cassidy 63% – 28% Among Voters 18 – 29 In A Hypothetical Runoff, According To A YouGov Poll. [CBS/NYT/YouGov 10/23/14]
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jeanne Shaheen Led Scott Brown 55% – 31% Among Voters Age 18 – 39, According To A Survey USA Poll. [Survey USA, 10/9/14]
NORTH CAROLINA: Kay Hagan Led Thom Tillis 61% – 27% Among Voters Age 18 – 29, According To A Public Policy Polling Poll. [Public Policy Polling, 10/20/14]
— None of which I care to look into the veracity of, because frankly, it’s too much work to suss out how either side is playing with numbers, and I’m tired. So instead I opted to respond thematically:
Dear Karl --
Thanks for looking out for me. I know how apt the media is to lie and spin for Republicans, just as I've long known that Harvard has been in the tank for people like, eg., Ronald Reagan.
Still, I'm not quite sure I get the point of the email or the response to the Harvard study. Do you mean to say that there are still millennials who are prepared to vote for their descent into subject-hood rather than pursue a course correction and embrace a liberty agenda of the kind that displaces an imperial Executive and returns to constitutionalism and equal protection before a stable rule of law?
Guess we need better schools.
Tell you what: I'll apply for a grant and we'll go from there. It's the least I can do.
Smarm is so fitting sometimes, isn’t it?
Have you ever felt so alone that you wonder if it even makes sense to get out of bed in the morning?
If you haven’t, be thankful.
My Mother is terminal. Today, she’s back in the hospital because this morning she couldn’t put any pressure at all on her right leg. And I feel like there’s nothing I can do to keep her from passing away penniless and with the knowledge that her only biological child ripped her off and left her to rot while he spends her money — most of which was actually my Father’s money — fattening himself up on Jimmy Buffet lager and restaurant meals, then stumbling home to a beach-adjacent condo, where he packs a bowl or snorts some coke and watches porn on the big screen in his dingy undies until he passes out.
Trying to receive even a call-back from an estate attorney in St Pete has been like pulling teeth. Big, snugly packed ones with long, disorderly roots. Of the Maryland attorneys I was referred to, only one of the 4 ever called me back (she was very nice and professional, but the retainer fees are cost prohibitive, particularly because I know I have to run a simultaneous suit in St Petersburg).
One of the longtime readers of this site has experience with the litigation process having to do with estates, etc. He’s been very helpful, and I thank him for that.
Still, I feel like going to sleep all the time now. And if I weren’t coaching wrestling and so very close to my wife and kids, I might just Rip Van Winkle right through all this.
Shorter version: this fucking blows, and I’m going to lie down now.
(h/t “Goldie,” the scummy bottom feeder over whom I may one day serve jail time, having finally given him the beating he’s deserved for at least the last 30 years. And yeah, go ahead and screencap that, Mr ADA. I don’t much care).
… then we are well and truly fucked.
Hell, even most of the journalists who have been systematically denied access to the White House and fed nothing but talking points and manufactured lies — not to mention had their phones tapped, in the case of the AP reporters — haven’t seemed to mind all that much.
Living in the old East Germany under the Stasi — only with specialty markets for cupcakes and bigger-screened iPhones so the gaming apps looks better — isn’t my idea of liberty, republicanism, or a stable rule of law.
(h/t Mark Levin)
Don’t feel like answering questions? Simply don’t show up for your debate. After all, the rubes are stupid, and name recognition and incumbency are what win elections, not policy positions or character, right, Senator Hagan?
North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Claude E. Pope, Jr. put it well:
“Senator Hagan works for the people of North Carolina – and they expect her to show up for work. Tonight, she had an opportunity to answer questions about her ‘stimulus’ payday, her Ebola travel ban flip-flop, and her decision to skip a classified briefing on the Islamic State for a fundraiser on Park Avenue. She had an opportunity, at long last, to lay out a positive vision for growth and jobs. She did not,” Pope said, going on to praise [Republican Senatorial challenger Thom] Tillis for his performance.
No worries. The Duke corridor and the Raleigh liberals will still pull the lever for her. After all, it’s party uber alles these days, and political affiliations are like badges of intellectual conspicuous consumption among a certain set.
That it shows them to be the opposite of what they suppose seems lost on them: shallow, superficial, and coddling of cronyism, enormous government, and despicable thieves and liars who just happen to have the proper political pedigree and party affiliation appended to their names.
It’s so very…sad.
Here’s the caveat: if you are actually someone who does take it seriously? You should really consider having your tubes tied or your uterus removed entirely. Or put another way, please, for the love of God, don’t procreate — even if pregnancy occurs accidentally, say, because there’s a statewide run on condoms and you can find no other way to prevent the sperm and egg from befriending one another, and for some reason you can’t find a doctor willing to drive a scissors through the head of a pre-born human; give him or her up for adoption and maybe ask for a tax write-off.
Also, stop using the word “science” as a kind of empty signifier. It’s embarrassing. And it makes my teeth itch. Like Senator Udall’s seemingly obsessive and awkward interest in Colorado women’s vaginal usages.
Like, so what else is new?
The other day I was talking to a senior Obama administration official about the foreign leader who seems to frustrate the White House and the State Department the most. “The thing about Bibi is, he’s a chickenshit,” this official said, referring to the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, by his nickname.
This comment is representative of the gloves-off manner in which American and Israeli officials now talk about each other behind closed doors, and is yet another sign that relations between the Obama and Netanyahu governments have moved toward a full-blown crisis. The relationship between these two administrations— dual guarantors of the putatively “unbreakable” bond between the U.S. and Israel—is now the worst it’s ever been, and it stands to get significantly worse after the November midterm elections. By next year, the Obama administration may actually withdraw diplomatic cover for Israel at the United Nations, but even before that, both sides are expecting a showdown over Iran, should an agreement be reached about the future of its nuclear program.
The fault for this breakdown in relations can be assigned in good part to the junior partner in the relationship, Netanyahu, and in particular, to the behavior of his cabinet. Netanyahu has told several people I’ve spoken to in recent days that he has “written off” the Obama administration, and plans to speak directly to Congress and to the American people should an Iran nuclear deal be reached. For their part, Obama administration officials express, in the words of one official, a “red-hot anger” at Netanyahu for pursuing settlement policies on the West Bank, and building policies in Jerusalem, that they believe have fatally undermined Secretary of State John Kerry’s peace process.
Over the years, Obama administration officials have described Netanyahu to me as recalcitrant, myopic, reactionary, obtuse, blustering, pompous, and “Aspergery.” (These are verbatim descriptions; I keep a running list.) But I had not previously heard Netanyahu described as a “chickenshit.” I thought I appreciated the implication of this description, but it turns out I didn’t have a full understanding. From time to time, current and former administration officials have described Netanyahu as a national leader who acts as though he is mayor of Jerusalem, which is to say, a no-vision small-timer who worries mainly about pleasing the hardest core of his political constituency. (President Obama, in interviews with me, has alluded to Netanyahu’s lack of political courage.) [...]
I ran this notion by another senior official who deals with the Israel file regularly. This official agreed that Netanyahu is a “chickenshit” on matters related to the comatose peace process, but added that he’s also a “coward” on the issue of Iran’s nuclear threat. The official said the Obama administration no longer believes that Netanyahu would launch a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities in order to keep the regime in Tehran from building an atomic arsenal. “It’s too late for him to do anything. Two, three years ago, this was a possibility. But ultimately he couldn’t bring himself to pull the trigger. It was a combination of our pressure and his own unwillingness to do anything dramatic. Now it’s too late.”
… stay home, m’kay?
Of course the Left clutched their pearls and looked for the fainting couch when a host on The Five dared suggest that some young women haven’t acquired the knowledge or experience to make an informed vote.
Yet it appears that Cosmo is proving FoxNews right by counting on getting the fluff-brains to the polls for Democrats by appealing to their libido, not their brains.
Shirtless male models and party buses are being offered to encourage female students at North Carolina State University to get out and vote during the Nov. 4 midterm elections. NC State students looking to vote will have the option of taking “a party bus equipped with snacks, prizes and shirtless male models” provided by Cosmopolitan magazine, student newspaper, Technician Online, reports. Colleges around the country were eligible for Cosmo’s contest prize, but the battleground state school is the winner.
I wonder if these girls have any clue what the phrase “bread and circuses” means?
Ok. To pursue the case against my brother the lawyer is asking for a $12,500 retainer. We, as you know, just bought a house — and rented out our other house rather than selling it, which seemed the better investment — and as a result are cash poor right now. So unless the attorney is willing to work with us on a payment plan, guess the old cancer-ridden gal who was dumped penniless into an assisted care facility, where she shares a room with two other sadsacks, is well and truly fucked, and “Goldie” gets to keep his booty.
Yes, I know: Life isn’t fair, wear a helmet, etc. But here’s a new one to mull over: when you try to teach your own children that crime doesn’t pay, make sure they don’t have a bloated, moronic sociopath for an uncle who, despite his numerous imbecilic maneuvers and the visible paper trail he’s left documenting his malfeasance, has in fact made it pay, and quite handsomely so — retired on a Florida beach at 44, owning a condo and a new car outright, plus squatting on the rest of the proceeds from the sale of the house, my father’s life insurance, bonds, pension, and an IRA — or else the lesson may seem rather forced and not terribly believable. To the more astute child.
Never having to make a rent payment or a mortgage payment in your life, and sponging up money off the mother you got to treat like a dog while she paid for your drug habit? That sounds like pretty sweet gig, if you can get past the whole morality thing.
In other news, congrats to Colt McCoy. Quite a gamer, that little dude is.
Now, back to my increasingly heavy and worrisome drinking. End of vent. And apologies to you lawyers out there, most of whom I am sure are good people. The market is what the market is. I understand that. I’m just feeling ground down.
When I sober back up, I’ll try to make this work somehow. Because what other choice do I have? At the very least, maybe the little bastard will have to do some jail time.
Sounds like the start of a joke, or a piece from The Onion. However, at one of the State Universities (San Diego) in the Socialist State of California, QPCC students not only demand that the mascot of an Aztec Warrior be banned, but that any new mascot cannot “use, hold, or operate anything resembling a man-made weapon,”.
n an official resolution submitted earlier this month to the student government, the SDSU Queer People of Color Collective called for the immediate end to any association with “Aztec” culture.
“The continued use of the name ‘Aztec’ and the ‘Aztec Warrior’ mascot perpetuate harmful stereotypes of Native Americans, including the notion that Native Americans are innately violent, dangerous, and ‘savage,’ which is demonstrated by the Aztec Warrior’s aggressive body language, the Aztec Warrior’s use of a spear at special events, the use of a spear on the SDSU Athletics Logo which is printed on uniforms and SDSU memorabilia, and the slogan ‘fear the spear,’ ” the resolution states.
The resolution also calls on the university to keep in mind the appropriateness, viability and general appeal when creating or choosing a new mascot. The students would also like to see a weapons ban instituted – that is, the new mascot cannot “use, hold, or operate anything resembling a man-made weapon,” the resolution states.
Any person with a passing knowledge of the history of Central America knows that the Aztec culture is one of the bloodiest, murderous, genocidal of “native” cultures in the pre-Columbian era. Indeed, it would have been impossible for Cortez to get anywhere near defeating the Aztecs without the enthusiastic support of other aboriginal groups who had been systemically conquered and abused by the Aztecs.
QPCC appears to want to not only perpetuate the snort-worthy stereotype of the Noble
Savage Native living in harmony with Mother Gaia until Evil.White.Males came with guns and smallpox blankets.